Warnings issued over attempts by Russia to 'build up dominance' in Mediterranean

Concern over the growing power and influence of Russia in the Mediterranean is being expressed by various experts and within the armed forces.

Russia is strengthening its military footprint in the arena, using as a springboard its influence with the Syrian government and among at least one powerful faction in the ongoing Libyan conflict, according to a commentary piece published by a panel of experts linked to the Rand Corp.

The Kremlin is attempting to build up dominance in the Mediterranean, according to the the U.S. Navy’s top admiral in Europe.

“The eastern Mediterranean is becoming one of the most kinetic areas in the world,” Adm. James Foggo, head of U.S. Naval Forces Europe and Africa, told a virtual seminar organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, according to Star and Stripes.

Separately, in a piece first published June 30 by Newsweek and later posted on the Rand Corporation website, Colin P. Clarke, William Courtney, Bradley Martin and Bruce McClintock, all leading experts linked to Rand, warned that U.S. and NATO need to meet the challenge by developing " a more robust southern strategy with a reinforced air and naval presence, respectively."

"Not since Egypt ordered out Soviet forces in 1972 has Moscow had a major military base in the Mediterranean," the authors noted.

They added, "This is changing. By upgrading its military posture in the region, Russia seems to believe it can be more successful in projecting power and minimizing the influence of the United States and NATO."

In 2017, Russia announced the formation of a "permanent group of forces" at the port of Tartus and nearby Khmeimim air base.

"Previously, Russia had use of only of a modest naval logistics facility at Tartus," the authors wrote. " Under a new 49-year lease, Moscow is funding a $500 million expansion. It will provide Russian warships with greater capacity for sustained and more distant operations in the Mediterranean Sea."

And in eastern Libya, the Russians, using the mercenary Wagner Group as a front, may attempt to gain influence with the main power brokers, including Khalifa Haftar, they warned.

The authors stated, "More U.S. and NATO air and naval presence in the Mediterranean could raise the cost to Russia of pursuing options for military intimidation, such as by installing integrated advanced air defense systems.

"A greater U.S. and NATO presence might also reassure allies in the Mediterranean, which could help by buttressing their own southern-facing postures."

"The Russians are deploying quiet, modern diesel submarines capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. A Kilo-class submarine can go anywhere in European waters and strike any European or North African capital from under the waves,” Foggo added.